Friday, April 20, 2007

We're Great! Also Shawn Green's 145 OPS+ is making me look like an idiot.

We're back in 1st in the East, our run differential is +49 (after 14 games!) and cool standings says we have a 82.4% chance of making the playoffs AS OF APRIL 20th.

In short, we are awesome. Totally awesome.

Or are we?
We have been pummeling opponents handily all year and lead the league in several major statistical categories. So is there any cause for concern?

Well... mebbe a lil'bit.

For starters, our BABIP is waaaaay too high (.359 vs NL ave of .294) meaning we're getting lucky and should expect our sparkling team BA of .303 to comeback to earth fairly quickly. Also our isolated slugging is merely good (.156 v .137 league) so our power isn't necessarily going to pick up the slack if and when our OBP declines due to the inflated BA.

On the positive side, our defensive has been absolutely silly +22 fielding runs (league average? minus 22). However, our crazy good D does mean our incredible team ERA of 2.40 plummets to 4.54 when viewed independent of fielding (first to worst!).

All this is nitpicking, however, and doesn't change the fact that we are an unstoppable Juggernaut of pain and destruction stampeding toward a 3 game collision with the soon to be devastated Atlanta Braves.

Get ready to taste it, Atlantards.


Rory B. Bellows said...

Whoah- that was some majorly awesome "cogent, statistical analysis" to PROVE the we are the most dominant force in MLB history. Also- I was worried that someone had ghost written that column, as there was not one gay joke. Then I was figuring at some point you'd claim that I had written my last entry while on cocaine, and then I'd have to recount the time we saw Magadan cut the head off of his girlfriend's cat with a kitchen knife ( Oh, those ghostwriters. Alas, then I noticed the Atlantard comment in the last sentence and a calm came over me as I thought, "DYNAMO'S BACK, BABY!!"

Ken Roberts said...

I've created yet another "odds of making the playoffs" website:

It only uses the flip a coin algorithm, but I think it presents the results in an interesting way.
I'm trying to answer questions like:
How well do we need to finish out the season to make the playoffs?
What games matter most today?

If you check it out I'd love to hear any feedback you might have.