And by real analysis I mean regurgitating what I just looked up on Baseball Prospectus. Hey, you get what you pay for at GMDB.
team record: 95-67 1st place
Combined offensive VORP: 250
Combined pitching VORP: 155
Notes: Castro's 13 VORP will hep when he subs for defensive specialists and below average batsman Brian Schneider's 5. If Delgado and Castillo can produce averagely at the plate and everyone stays healthy then the Mets will have a very potent offense, as there are no glaring holes. The problem I see, however, is depth, as last year demonstrated that this is a team that will spend a lot of time on the DL. If people like Alou and Beltran need DL stints I'm not convinced the likes of Damian Easley, Marlon Anderson and Angel Pagan will be able to carry the team in their absence.
Pitching looks strong, and improved from last year, especially the bullpen, which is not factored in the team pitching VORP. Duaner Sanchez, if he comes back healthy, Pedro Feliciano and Aaron Heilman are as good a group of set up guys as any. I'm more concerned with starting pitching, which also has depth problems. Even with Pelfrey and El Duque battling for 5th spot, I'd still be worried about everyone staying healthy. Moreover, Perez and Maine have yet to prove they can be counted on for 200 quality innings a season. I DO NOT want to see Brian Lawrence or Chan Ho god damn Park taking the hill this year.
team record: 85-77 2nd place
Combined offensive VORP: 225
Combined pitching VORP: 130
Notes: I was surprised to see the Phillies offense that much lower than the Mets, but Pedro Feliz is a huge blackhole at third. He and starting CF Shane Victorino only provide 23 VORP combined, where as D Wright projects 70 alone (second in the majors only to Pujols). Also the Phils' big three of Howard, Rollins and Utely are projected to have 140 VOPR this year, while Belty, Jose and the Golden One are looking at 162. Overall, the Mets just have a better offense (hey, I call it like I see it). The difference in projected runs scored between the two teams must then be attributed to park effects.
As for pitching, Hamels looks like hes going to be a beast, but beyond that there is not much to write about. It will be a solid staff, but Jamie Moyers looks to be their third best pitcher and he is literally 4,000 years old. Hey, he should have forged his birth certificate like El Duque if he wanted more credibility at this age. Also, Brad Lidge is the closer. Yikes.
Team record: 84-78 3rd place
Combined offensive VORP: 230
Combined pitching VORP: 110
Notes: This collection of buttheads actuallys looks to be very decent at the plate this year. Yunel Escobar (SS), Kelly Johnson (2B), and Brian McCann (C) are all young and look to add 22 - 37 VORP. You'd think the Bravos would also be able to improve in center, after Andruw Jones' miserable year, but alas, Mark Kotsay is a essentially worthless with a projected 4 VORP. Mark Teixeira is good. The Mets should sign him next year.
Perpetual pain in the ass, John Smotlz is still pitching and is still excellent. No one else is either great or terrible except for our favorite ex-Met, Tommy Glavine. Oh no, how will the Mets replace their former staff ace next year? Oh, I don't know, how about with ANY OTHER PLAYER IN THE MAJOR LEAGUES RIGHT NOW???? Glav-dawg's VORP is projected to be 3 next year. He blows. And is a jagov.
Team record: 74-88 4th place
Combined offensive VORP: 195
Combined pitching VORP: 60
Notes: Hanely Ramirez (with a sick 65 projected VORP) and a bunch of dog shit. I mean really, no one else. I couldn't believe they're projected to finish ahead of the the Nationals after shipping Cabrera and Willis out of the league but I guess there is still enough leftovers to make a half way decent team.
Anyway, this team bores me and they have no fans. I'm moving on.
Team record: 73-89 5th place
Combined offensive VORP: 165
Combined pitching VORP: 45
Notes: I'll be honest - I'm looking forward to seeing the Nats play this year. Sure, their team is mostly crap (Zimmerman and his 43 VORP excepted), but look at this roster: Blastings Thrilledge, Willy Mo Pena, 'You dead dawg I aint bullshittin you', Mini-ManRam, Meat Hook, I mean whats not to like? Oh, well yes, Big Pud is there, but that just means I have someone to boo now that Bowden swindled Omar into taking their two most annoying players. Thanks a lot, Omar.
The Nats pitching, however, is absolute garbage. John Lannan is projected to be their number 3 starter with a -13 VORP. Yes, NEGATIVE. If you thought it was ugly in cavernous RFK, what until this year. Woof.
So a little more thoughtful than last year's. The total VORPs are more estimates as I rounded while adding them up, bu I think its mostly alright. Feel free to bitch about everything I've just said. I enjoy a good debate. In fact, some would call me a master debater (haHAH!) It was all rather tedious though. I don't think I'll be doing much more of this 'analysis' in the future. So you just keep your statistics and leave me alone, NERDS!