Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Mets vs Phillies 2008 Projection

If I could do some real baseball blogging for a second, remember when I was having that 'debate' about who would have the better season next year, the Phillies or the Mets?

Thankfully, Dave Pinto at Baseball Musing has done all the heavy lifting for me. According to Pinto, the Phillies should average between 4.78 and 5.34 runs per game and the Mets should average between 4.62 and 5.19. Thats a difference of about 0.160 and 0.150 runs per game on either end of the scale.

But wait, Pinto used Marcel projections for the 2008 season, so those numbers need to be adjusted for park effects if we're going to do a one-on-one comparison on who has the better offense. Over the last three years, Citizens Bank Park has produced 0.159 more runs per game than Shea. Now one doesn't have to be a scientician to realize that this means the Mets and the Phillies are going to have pretty similar offenses come next season.

Now add to that the advantage the Mets pitching staff (NOW WITH JOHAN SANTANA) has over the Phillies and what you get is a slam dunk of touchdowns.



This blog will now resume it's regular bits pertaining to dicks, farts and lesbian nazi hookers abducted by space aliens and forced into weight loss programs.


rockyourface said...

Yes, please get back to what makes this blog mediocre to average. If I want real baseball talk, I'll read Tim Kirkjian.

Bill B. said...

I didn't realize you made your own blog post about our conversation. Thanks for making me look good! Nothing like free publicity.

You da man.

I agree that, now that Santana will be pitching half his games at Shea, the Mets are the favorites to win the NL East. However, the rest of the rotation is highly questionable, and both the Mets and the Phillies are due to slightly regress offensively.

It's a shame you don't understand park effects. Park effects are used to compare two teams or two players in a vacuum. Baseball isn't played in a vacuum, and surely the '08 season won't be. The Mets played in Shea last season when they averaged 4.96 RPG and the Phillies played in Citizens Bank Park last season when they averaged 5.51 RPG.

Unless the two teams are going to swap stadiums, or play in a neutral park, there's no need to adjust for park effects.


Ken Dynamo said...

you know what bill, you play baseball in a vacuum. because you suck!!!


no seriously, i understand how park effects work. i was comparing offenses, one-to-one. and since the marcel projections we're using did not take into account park effects, i wanted to show that if both teams played all their games at a league average stadium they would score basically the same number of runs.

it's like if you looked at the padres offense and said, "hey, their line up is only going to score between 4.25 and 4.74 runs per game next year (via pinto and baseball musing), they need to accquire more offense!" but really, once you adjust for park affect, their offense is about league average.

its all pretty basic stuff so im suprised you dont get it. maybe i was confusing in the way i stated but whats more likely is youre probably autistic.

Bill B. said...

I have a feeling you really don't know what autism is. Autism doesn't affect intelligence; it's simply an inability to effectively communicate with others. One of my late uncles was autistic and he may very well have been the most intelligent person in the family (insert one of your snide quips here). He could remember the most obscure baseball statistics from 1983, what you were wearing at Thanksgiving dinner seven years ago, and all kinds of other stuff.

What is the point in saying, "If you adjust the Mets' and Phillies' offenses for park effects, they are roughly equal?"

If ifs and buts were pots and pans, the world would be a kitchen, my friend.

Ken Dynamo said...

i just read on wikipedia that autistic people also have no idea what a joke is.

back to the point: lets say we project the mets to average 5 runs per game next year. thats with half the games being played at shea. the phillies, lets say, will average 5.15, thats with playsing half thier games at CBP. when the mets play at CBP, they will average more runs per game, not exactly the average between parks, but close to it. and when the phillies play in shea, you would expect them to average closer to 5 runs than 5.15 runs per game.

so yes, the phillies will score more runs, but so will other teams when they play at CBP.

another way to think about it: the difference in projected allowed runs per game is going to be smaller in actual games then the numbers would suggest.

here is another factoid to chew on: jimmy rollins eats his own boogers.

Dennis Rasmussen said...

Bill B sounds like a real faggot.

rockyourface said...

Here's a stadium projections for you: CBP will be filled with minimum wage earning white trash.

Bill B. said...

rockyourface: I wasn't aware that the Phillies organization went on a hiring spree of all the people that sold T-shirts and pretzels outside Shea Stadium.

rockyourface said...

William, you are obviously are operating under the mistaken belief that I am a Mets fan, let me assure you that I am not.

While I am not going to get involved in a NYC vs. Philly debate (I've been to both, NYC is better), you have clearly confused the issue. I was not commenting on the workers at CBP, but the fans who attend Philly sporting events, so I do not see how the Phillies possibly hiring away the street vendors from outside Shea is at all relevant. Obviously your ignorance is not confined to a lack of understanding of ball park effects.

Shea Stadium said...

Bill B. so what's it like being in your 40's, living at home and still waiting for that special someone to cash in your V-card?

Ken Dynamo said...

ok, settle down shea and dennis. theres no need to throw around unsubstantiated rumors. we shouldnt label him if we can't be sure he is, for instance, actually 40 years old.

Bill B. said...

Where would I live, if not at home? Isn't that kind of... like, the definition of where you live? At home?

Rockyourface: If CBP is filled with people earning minimum wage, I wonder how they afford the tickets, and the food and merchandise in the stadium. If you've ever been there, it's pricey, especially for a minimum-wage-earner.

And if you want to get into a city-vs.-city debate, Philly definitely wins in the murder category.

KD, I am not 40. I am between the ages of 10-30. I will leave you to your devices to come up with an accurate number.